When voters in England and Wales go to the polls on Thursday to elect mayors and local council members, the results will inevitably be seen as a barometer of Britain’s upcoming general election.Given the poor public sentiment and the Conservative Party Terrible poll ratingsstorm clouds have formed.
The big question is not whether the ruling Conservatives will lose seats – that is the established conclusion of the pollsters – but whether the losses will be greater or less than expected after 18 months in power. Always behind the opposition Labor leads by a slim margin.
“If a party is 20 points behind the opposition in 18 months, can things get worse?” said Tony Travers, professor of politics at the London School of Economics. “These losses would have to be very, very bad to be seen as a negative outcome for the Conservatives, and they are unlikely to be seen as a success for Labour.”
Professor Travers said the magic number was 500 parliamentary seats.
He said that if the Conservatives, defending 985 seats in England, were able to keep losses below 500, the party’s faithful would likely regard it as a bitter but tolerable setback.If Labor is defending 965 seats while other parties capture more than 500 Tory seats, this could trigger A new panic Within the ranks of the ruling party, it has even put Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s position at risk.
Professor Travers acknowledged that the 500-seat benchmark was arbitrary and the conceit of academics, rather than a concrete measure of either party’s standing with the electorate. But in local elections, especially those shortly before a general election, intangible factors like momentum and sentiment matter.
According to most people, Public sentiment remains depressed His anti-incumbency enthusiasm is also very strong. The Conservatives are grappling with the same problems that have plagued them for more than a year: cost-of-living austerity, economic stagnationrise mortgage rates and The crisis in the NHS.
With few exceptions, the Conservative Party, which has been in power at the national level for 14 years, has been swept out of parliament in recent special elections held to fill vacancies.Sunak could call a general election within weeks but is more likely to take place in the autumn, with opinion polls predicting a landslide Labor victory, which could be linked to Tony Blair’s Labor Party in 1997.
exist last local electionThe Conservatives lost more than 1,000 seats in the general election held a year ago, and a series of defeats across the country have highlighted the party’s problems and raised questions about Mr Sunak. Mr Sunak stabilized the UK economy after a tumultuous 44 days in office. his ex liz truss.
From then on, things didn’t go well for him. Although inflation has fallen, UK economy remains stagnant Thousands of Britons are being shocked by rising mortgage rates. Fearing imminent electoral defeat, the party split into two factions: feud campIf Sunak is forced out, ambitious future leaders will be competing to replace him.
“They fight like rats in a sack,” said Timothy Bell, a political science professor at Queen Mary University of London. “They are pursuing a culture war politics that has little appeal to an increasingly tolerant electorate.”
However, in such a heated political climate, two issues have taken center stage in recent weeks – immigration and immigration. Israel-Hamas War – Analysts say this could produce a modest advantage for the Conservatives.
Mr Sunak recently won passage of a controversial law that would put asylum seekers in One-way flights to Rwanda, in central Africa. The policy has been welcomed by the Conservative base, although legal and logistical challenges make it unlikely to send large numbers of people there.
On Wednesday, the British government said it had Putting a failed asylum seeker on a commercial flight to Rwanda. But the man left under a separate voluntary scheme rather than a forced relocation scheme, and the government paid him a leaving fee of 3,000 pounds (about $3,750).
Despite enforcement measures in the UK, no asylum seekers have yet been forcibly deported Hundreds of millions of pounds paid to Rwanda.The figure undercuts Mr Sunak’s claims that the policy would be a cost-effective deterrent tens of thousands of asylum seekers They cross the English Channel every year in a small boat.
Still, Wednesday’s announcement was the first sign of progress on irregular migration, which analysts said could placate disappointed Conservative voters. It could also help the party fend off challenges from populist Nigel Farage’s anti-immigration party reforming Britain.
Israel poses challenge to Labor Because local Labor politicians were unhappy with how long it took party leader Keir Starmer to call for a ceasefire in Gaza.Mr Starmer, who has been working to eradicate The legacy of anti-Semitism Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, a delicate balance has been maintained in the party’s ranks. October 7 Hamas-led attack and Israel’s military response.
But his cautious approach has frustrated those on the party’s left, especially Muslims. Some Labor members have quit the party and are running as independents. This could harm traditional Labor strongholds in areas with large Muslim populations.
“If Muslims want a protest vote on Israel-Gaza, this is a risk-free protest vote,” said Robert Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester.
Of course, the role of local elections as a precursor to the general election is limited. Voter turnout was about half that of the general election. While national issues are important, local elections can be influenced by narrow issues such as waste collection and planning permission approvals.
The narrative of these elections is also likely to be driven by the results of three mayoral races: in Tees Valley, where Conservative Ben Houchen is fighting for his political survival; Fighting for his political survival; In the Tees Valley, Tory Ben Houchen is fighting for his political survival; In the West Midlands, another Tory, Andy Street, is there Start a fierce competition. In London, Labor mayor Sadiq Khan leads the polls but does little to excite voters.
Professor Ford noted that both Mr Hohen and Mr Street were more popular than the Conservative Party as a whole. If personal popularity can help them overcome deep disillusionment with their party and win re-election, it will be a win for the Conservatives and a talking point.
“This will allow them to say, ‘While we are in trouble nationally and our prime minister is unpopular, we have popular politicians and we can still win elections,'” Professor Ford said.
For Mr Sunak, this will be cold comfort. But it may also insulate him from a leadership challenge that could come from a deeper-than-expected loss.
