Ukraine’s second largest city is preparing for Russia’s new offensivea growing Number of NATO allies Canada backed Kiev’s request to allow its military to use Western weapons to carry out strikes on Russian territory. This week, Canada became the latest of at least a dozen countries to declare that weapons it has supplied to Ukraine could be used to strike military targets on Russia’s border.
But the United States, Ukraine’s most important arms supplier, remains reluctant to take such a step, fearing that it would anger Russia and lead to an escalation of the situation, which could draw NATO into the equation and trigger a wider war. Long Range Army Tactical Missile SystemOr ATACMS can only attack Russian targets in Ukraine.
However, many Western leaders and military analysts say that with Russia massing thousands of troops on the Ukrainian border – less than 20 miles from the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv – Ukraine urgently needs the authority to attack inside Russia using Western weapons.
“Russian commanders are well aware that Ukraine has no ability to fight back,” said Peter Dickinson, a Ukraine analyst at the Atlantic Council in Washington.
Officials and experts say launching long-range missiles at Russia to strike its troops, bases, airfields and supply lines could have an immediate effect. In fact, the Ukrainian military appears to be preparing to launch some preliminary strikes “to test Russia’s response,” Rafael Los, an arms expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said in an interview Thursday.
But Los said Ukraine and NATO allies are unwilling to take the risk of policy changes without the approval of the United States. “If Russia’s military actions escalate significantly, such as against NATO territory, the United States will ultimately bear a large part of the response responsibility.”
Here is an overview of the countries that allow Ukraine to use weapons on Russian territory and those that do not, as well as the possible impact if Ukraine is allowed free rein to wage war on Russia.
Supporters of attacks on Russian territory
Every country that supplies weapons to Ukraine has the right to dictate how those weapons are used, and so far U.K.,Canada, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, FranceGermany, Latvia, Lithuaniathis NetherlandsSweden and Poland Expressed support for Ukraine’s attack on military targets on Russian territory.
Some countries were more cautious than others. Germany and Sweden, for example, approved it only on condition that it be done “within the framework of international law,” as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Tuesday. He spelled out a requirement that other countries have also insisted on when supplying weapons to Ukraine over the past two years, though in a less explicit manner.
Britain was one of the first countries to advocate for easing restrictions. “Ukraine has that right,” British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said during a visit to Kiev on May 3. “As Russia has attacked inside Ukraine, you can quite understand why Ukraine feels the need to ensure that it can defend itself.”
The campaign gained steam this week as Germany reconsidered its position, with strong support from French President Emmanuel Macron. “It’s like we’re telling them: ‘We give you weapons, but you can’t defend yourself with them,’ ” Macron said this week in Berlin, with Scholz by his side.
Those who called for a “cautious” approach
Several countries, including the United States, Belgium and Italy, have said they are not prepared to allow Ukraine to use weapons against targets inside Russia, citing unforeseen risks. For example, Ukraine recently used its own drones to attack Russia’s nuclear early warning radar system, a move that could be destabilizing and has caused deep concern in Washington.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meroni explain NATO allies “must be extremely cautious” before Western weapons enter Russian territory. A day later, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo Belgium announced that it would donate 30 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, but only “for use by the Ukrainian Defense Forces on Ukrainian territory.”
In Washington, a White House spokesman insisted Tuesday that the Biden administration would not “encourage or allow” the use of U.S. weapons on Russian territory. But that pushback appeared to soften in the face of growing pressure from allies, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggesting the next day that the U.S. might “adjust and adjust” its stance depending on battlefield conditions.
The Biden administration had long resisted Ukrainian demands to buy more powerful weapons, but eventually caved in under pressure and when Ukraine’s prospects seemed bleak. This was the case with weapons such as the ATACM long-range missile system, Abrams tanks and F-16 fighter jets.
But a senior Biden administration official said that in a few cases the United States allowed Ukrainian forces to use Patriot air defense missiles to shoot down Russian fighter jets operating in Russian airspace.
Possible impact
Ukraine has received permission to strike Russia immediately using long-range Storm Shadow missiles supplied by Britain and SCALP missiles supplied by France. These missiles have a range of about 150 miles and are fired by Ukraine’s aging Soviet-designed fighter jets.
Several countries, including the United Kingdom, Germany, Norway, and the United States, have provided Ukraine with land-based launchers that can fire long-range missiles. These systems, known as HIMARS and MLRS launchers, can also fire the United States’ ATACMS missiles, which have a range of up to 190 miles.
“If they approve the use of ATACMS, it could undermine Russia’s ability to use its territory as a sanctuary for ground operations,” Los said.
(Germany has so far refused to donate the long-range Taurus missile, which has a range of 310 miles, in part because of concerns that it could be fired deep into Russia and escalate the war. Loss said Germany is even less likely to do so now.)
In addition, Britain, Canada and the United States have provided Ukraine with medium-range missiles or ground-based small-diameter bombs that can be fired into Russian territory from 50 to 90 miles away.
But the new authorization could have the biggest impact in the war for air superiority — especially if allies allow their donated jets and drones to launch attacks from within Russian airspace.
It is unclear whether Denmark or the Netherlands would allow the F-16s they send to Ukraine to fly over Russian territory, given the possibility that Russia could shoot them down. Dutch Defense Minister Kaija Ollongren did not appear to place specific limits on the weapons the Netherlands would provide in comments this week. “I have never ruled out the possibility of Ukraine striking Russian territory,” she said.
At least four other countries — Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and North Macedonia — have provided Soviet-era fighter jets. Britain and Turkey have sent long-range attack drones that can also fly directly into Russian territory.
At the very least, the arriving fleet of F-16s will be equipped with long-range missiles that can target Russian warplanes “from behind the border,” which will have implications for Ukraine’s future air power, Los said.
“We’re not there yet,” he said, noting that Ukrainian pilots have not yet mastered enough skills to counter Russia’s superiority. “But it is possible that Ukraine’s future F-16 fleet could strike Russian territory.”
Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington.
