Ukraine’s top military commander gave a pessimistic assessment of army positions on the eastern front, saying they had “significantly deteriorated in recent days.”
Russia’s military is trying to exploit its growing advantages manpower and ammunition In an effort to break through Ukrainian defenses, commander General Alexander Silsky said in a statement All weekend long.
“Despite heavy losses, the enemy is increasing its efforts and using new units on armored vehicles, thereby making tactical gains on a regular basis,” the general said.
At the same time, the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine Tell As Ukrainian power plants were damaged or destroyed in devastating Russian airstrikes, millions of civilians charged up their power banks, took out generators and “be prepared for any scenario.”
For months, little critical military supplies have flowed into Ukraine from the United States, and as civilian casualties mounted, commanders were forced to make difficult choices about where to deploy limited resources.
Even before U.S. aid disappears — a bill to provide $60 billion in military and other aid could come up for a vote in the House this week — there is a consensus among Ukrainian commanders and military analysts that the third year of war is coming to an end . is extremely difficult.
President Volodymyr Zelensky warned again on Monday night that delays in U.S. aid were exacerbating challenges on the front lines and said the latest information from Ukrainian intelligence services suggested the Kremlin was preparing for some kind of major offensive in late spring or early summer. Prepare.
Three of the most serious challenges facing Ukraine have been apparent for months: a lack of ammunition, a lack of trained troops and dwindling air defense capabilities.
Now, as Russia ramps up its attacks, each problem exacerbates the impact of other vulnerabilities and increases the risk of Russian forces breaching Ukraine’s defenses.
Here are the serious challenges Ukraine currently faces and how its leaders are working to mitigate them.
shell hunger
Gen. Christopher G. Cavalli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, gave a blunt assessment of Ukraine’s dire ammunition shortage in testimony before Congress last week.
“If one side can shoot and the other side can’t fire back, then the side that can’t fire back loses,” General Cavalli said.
The United States supplies most of Ukraine’s artillery ammunition, and Russia will soon be able to fire 10 rounds for every Ukrainian artillery round, he said.
“If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine may fail,” he testified, urging lawmakers to approve the new aid package.
The longer range and greater destructive power of larger artillery such as rocket systems and howitzers—they are impervious to weather and less susceptible to electronic warfare interference than drones—make them indispensable tools. While drones have dramatically changed the battlefield, often turning any attempt to cross open terrain into a suicide mission, they also have limitations.
“Drones can effectively destroy military equipment, tanks,” said Viktor Nazarov, an adviser to former top Ukrainian general Valery Zaluzhny. “But you can’t destroy the defenses with drones.”
Nazarov said the enemy could attack when they had a five-to-one advantage in artillery shells. When it reaches 10 to 1, they can succeed.
Since the capture of Avdiivka earlier this year, Russia has only captured small pockets of land at great cost but has achieved no major operational breakthroughs. But Ukrainian officials say Russia has taken advantage of warm, dry weather in recent days to launch attacks with dozens of tanks and combat vehicles after replenishing its arsenal with aid from North Korea and Iran.
General Shirsky said that Russia is trying to seize the opportunity to achieve operational breakthroughs on several main attack lines, posing the most urgent threat to the town of Chasiv Yar. The heavily fortified hilltop town, seven miles west of Bakhmut, protects the hub of some of the Donbas region’s largest cities, including the seat of the Eastern Command in Kramatorsk.
Ukrainian commanders hope that several moves by European allies to secure hundreds of thousands of shells will soon begin to ease their urgent needs.
Czech Republic President Peter Pavel told reporters last week that the Czech Republic has now identified 1 million rounds of 155-caliber artillery shells, 200,000 more than previously estimated, and that 15 countries have joined in funding the procurement.
Mr Pavel said Estonia and the UK were leading similar campaigns. It was unclear how successful they would be or how quickly large amounts of ammunition could be moved to the front lines.
At that point, the burden will fall on the infantry.As General Cavalli confirms, artillery remains Ukraine’s biggest killer, and Russia’s superiority means More Ukrainian soldiers will die. This reinforces another major weakness: military strength.
mobilization
Gen. Yuri Sodor, commander of Ukraine’s eastern army, painted a bleak picture last week when he addressed lawmakers ahead of a vote aimed at improving the country’s recruitment process.
He said the widespread use of drones meant armored vehicles deployed to the zero line of the front line were typically targeted and destroyed within 30 minutes. Therefore, the responsibility for holding the position fell primarily on the infantry, without much support needed to withstand waves of Russian infantry attacks.
Gen. Sodor said a squad of eight to 10 soldiers was usually responsible for defending 100 meters of land, but Ukraine was not always able to field a full squad.
“If there are only two soldiers, they can defend a 20-meter front,” he said. “Right away, the question arises: Who will run the remaining 80 meters?”
Parliament recently passed laws aimed at replenishing the military, but the process has taken months and many recruitment challenges remain. To meet immediate needs, the Ukrainian command said it would rotate “thousands” of soldiers currently in the rear to combat positions. But that brings up another problem: ensuring that soldiers deployed to the front lines are properly trained.
Gen. Hirski said the quality of training is a “serious issue” and efforts are being made to give veterans a more active role in improving conditions.
But no amount of training can protect against the powerful thousand-pound glide bombs Russia is using to destroy Ukraine’s defenses. Ukrainians say that’s why they desperately need help from Western allies to help finally close the skies.
air defense
“If we talk about air combat, it should be divided into two parts,” said Nazarov, a senior military adviser.
“The first part is our air and missile defense systems to respond to Russian missile attacks throughout our country,” he said. “The second part is what air combat looks like on the front lines.”
On both fronts, Ukraine is struggling.
Institute of War Studies, located at special report In an air campaign, commanders face difficult choices about how to deploy air defense systems. The systems capable of intercepting Russian missiles targeting Ukrainian cities and infrastructure are said to be the same systems needed to stop Russian bombers from dropping glide bombs in the Gulf.
“The Russians are taking advantage of the withdrawal of these air defense systems from the front lines to make slow but steady progress on the ground,” the institute said.
The degradation of Ukraine’s air defenses also allows Russia to be more successful in striking critical infrastructure, which the institute said could have a “knock-on effect” on Ukraine’s ability to build domestic weapons production.
Zelensky said on Saturday that Ukraine has about 500 defense industry enterprises employing nearly 300,000 people and producing artillery shells, mortars, armored vehicles, anti-tank weapons, electronic warfare systems, drones and other ammunition.
But factories need electricity. Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said the attacks on energy infrastructure since late March were the most intense in the war, even worse than the bombings in the winter of 2022-23 that nearly destroyed the power grid. The action needs to be broader.
Ukraine has tried to counter the Russian threat with a series of long-range drone attacks on Russian airports and critical infrastructure, but Kiev officials have no illusions: without advanced Western air defenses, they are in trouble.
Kiev hopes Ukrainian pilots currently training on F-16 fighter jets will be flying over Ukraine by the summer, adding another layer of much-needed defense. But with U.S. aid still in doubt, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba pushed hard to ensure security. patriot air defense battery Currently idle in Europe.
Eric Schmidt Contributing reporting from Washington
