The world was shocked this week by images of flood damage to communities in one of the driest places on earth. Heavy rains in the United Arab Emirates and Oman swamped cars and blocked highways, killing at least 21 people. Flights from Dubai Airport, a major global hub, were severely disrupted.
The downpour was no freak event—forecasters predicted the storm and issued warnings just days later. But they are certainly unusual. Here’s what to know.
Heavy rain there is rare, but not unheard of.
On average, the Arabian Peninsula receives only a few inches of rainfall per year, although Scientists discovered A significant portion of precipitation occurs in infrequent but violent bursts rather than periodic showers.
UAE officials said Tuesday’s 24-hour rainfall total was the country’s heaviest Since records began in 1949. But just last month, parts of the country experienced a round of thunderstorms.
Oman’s coastline, located in the Arabian Sea, is also vulnerable to tropical cyclones. Past storms have brought heavy rain, strong winds and mudslides, causing widespread damage.
Global warming is expected to intensify the downpours.
Stronger storms are a key consequence of human-caused global warming. As the atmosphere gets hotter, it can hold more moisture, which eventually falls to Earth as rain or snow.
But that doesn’t mean rainfall patterns are changing in exactly the same way in every corner of the globe.
in their Latest assessment of climate researchScientists convened by the United Nations found there was not enough data to draw firm conclusions about rainfall trends in the Arabian Peninsula and how climate change is affecting them. However, if global warming continues to worsen in the coming decades, extreme downpours in the region are likely to become more intense and frequent, the researchers said.
The role of cloud seeding is unclear.
For decades, the UAE has been working to seed clouds to increase rainfall and increase water supplies. Essentially, this involves firing particles into clouds to encourage moisture to aggregate into larger, heavier droplets that are more likely to fall as rain or snow.
Artificial rainfall and other rainfall enhancement methods have been tried around the world, including in Australia, China, India, Israel, South Africa and the United States. The study found that these operations had, at best, a modest impact on precipitation — enough to turn heavy downpours into heavier downpours, but probably not enough to turn drizzle into floods.
However, experts say determining how much seeding may have contributed to this week’s storms will require detailed study.
“Overall, assessing the impact of seeding is quite a challenge,” said Luca Delle Monache, a climate scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California. Efforts to Harness Artificial Intelligence Improving rainfall enhancement programs in the UAE.
Omar Al Yazeedi, official of the UAE National Meteorological Center said news media this week The agency did not conduct any seeding during the recent storm. However, his statement did not make it clear whether the same was true hours or days earlier.
Al-Yazdi did not respond to emailed questions from The New York Times on Thursday, and center spokesman Adel Kamal had no immediate further comment.
Cities in arid regions are simply not suitable for flood protection.
Wherever they occur, flooding is not just a matter of rainfall. It’s also about what happens to all that water once it reaches the ground—most importantly, where people live.
Cities in arid regions are often designed to drain water inefficiently. In these areas, paved roads prevent rainwater from seeping into the ground, forcing it into drainage systems that can easily become flooded.
A recent study of SharjahThe capital of the United Arab Emirates’ third-largest emirate has found that its rapid growth over the past half century has left it vulnerable to flooding when rainfall is much lower than before.
Oniya Al Desuki Contributed reporting.
