Iran fired a slew of weapons at Israel this weekend, turning the two countries’ long-standing shadow war into a direct confrontation and raising concerns that the old pattern of carefully planned strikes by both countries has been replaced by a more overt, violent and dangerous pattern. .
But as of Monday, Israel had yet to respond to the Iranian attack. Rather than preparing the public for a showdown with its main rival, the government has signaled a return to relative normality, lifting restrictions on large gatherings and allowing schools to reopen.
Some right-wing Israeli politicians are frustrated by the lack of immediate response, arguing that Israel needs to hit back hard — and quickly — or risk losing its deterrence. Other more centrist officials believe Israel should bide its time before responding and take advantage of the support it receives from allies and regional actors otherwise angry at Israel’s war in Gaza.
Any tough response from Israel is likely to anger President Joe Biden, who has been pressuring Israel to de-escalate tensions and whose military support it needs in the event of a major conflict. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must weigh the clear benefits of retaliation against the risk of further angering the president, as well as the potential human and financial costs, as Israel faces criticism from the president for dragging out the war in Gaza. Two wars going on at the same time.
An Israeli official briefed on cabinet discussions, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss security issues, said as of Monday a variety of options were being considered, ranging from diplomacy to imminent attacks, but gave no further details.
In short, the next steps in the conflict remain uncertain.
Analysts say the nature of Israel’s response could increase or decrease the likelihood of regional war.it could improve or intensify pressure on israel Relations with Arab countries that share antipathy toward Iran But he is critical of the Gaza war.
It’s also possible that Israel and Iran are simply returning to the established norms of shadow warfare—Israel assassinating individuals, Iranian proxies firing salvos at Israel, and both sides engaging in cyberattacks.
“It’s too early to tell,” said Dana Strauer, until recently the top Pentagon official in charge of the Middle East. “From an Israeli security perspective, it’s hard to see how they could stand idly by,” Ms. Strauer said. “The question is: What does that look like? How do you send a clear course and signal to Iran while avoiding World War III in the Middle East?”
If the trajectory of the coming days remains frustratingly opaque, the events of the past 48 hours have cast the conflict into sharper focus.
Sunday’s attack saw Iran launch hundreds of explosive drones and missiles into Israeli territory from its own territory for the first time in retaliation for Israel. Seven Iranian officials killed in Syria earlier this month.
From a military perspective, Iran’s attack demonstrates its willingness to confront Israel directly rather than through the use of regional proxies such as Lebanese Hezbollah. Upending Israel’s Assumptions Regarding Iran’s risk threshold.
On the diplomatic front, Iran’s attacks and Israel’s vigorous defense coordinated with Western and Arab partners have helped divert international attention away from Israel’s war in Gaza, which has reportedly killed more than 33,000 people and prompted accusations , but Israel firmly denies genocide.
At a time when Israel’s closest allies have become increasingly critical of Israeli military conduct in Gaza, the Iranian attack has prompted these partners to work closely with Israel The same Israeli air force that launched a devastating strike on Gaza.
“You can see that Israel’s diplomatic position has improved, not only among Arabs but also among Western Europeans, because it is a victim of Iranian aggression rather than an aggressor,” said Itamar Ra, the former Israeli ambassador to Washington. Itamar Rabinovich said. “Being a ‘victim’ improves your status.”
Analysts say it remains unclear how Israel’s defenses would have functioned without Iran’s warnings in the days leading up to the weekend attacks, which gave Israel and its allies critical preparation time. While Iran has said any future “mistakes” by Israel will be met with a “harder” response, the threat is also untested and vague enough to leave room for maneuver.
Analysts say the goodwill Israel has recently built up with its allies could quickly evaporate if Israel opens fire on Iran, plunging the region into war.
For Iran’s leaders, the attacks, which caused limited damage and left a child seriously injured, were nonetheless a domestic and diplomatic victory because they allowed Iran to appear confrontational with Israel.
At home, Iran’s leaders have had to face accusations that they were too passive after previous Israeli attacks on Iranian officials. Analysts said the salvo also reassured Iran’s allies and proxies in countries such as Lebanon and Yemen that Iran was willing to take the risk of attacking Israel from its own soil. They also say it allows Iran to showcase rival Middle Eastern leaders who often openly criticize Israel while quietly cooperating with the Israeli government.
Nargis Bajogli, an Iran expert at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, said Iran hopes to “assume the role of protector of the Muslim world.” “They are basically demonstrating their strength to a regional audience but also demonstrating the weakness of Arab leaders in the region,” she said. “Arab countries have not yet directly confronted Israel as Iran has.”
Quite the opposite is true: At least one Arab country, Jordan, was directly involved in repelling the Iranian attack, while others are thought to have quietly assisted Israel by sharing intelligence or sending data gleaned from missile-detection sensors.
Israel’s eastern neighbor, Jordan, has a large Palestinian population and has been a frequent critic of the Gaza war.but it still admit Iranian targets in Jordanian airspace have been “dealt with” and its forces will repel similar attacks in the future.
The announcement is a reminder of how, before the Gaza war, a shared fear of Iran began to smoothly facilitate Israel’s diplomatic integration in the Middle East and allow Israel Strengthen military coordination Cooperation between Israel and some Arab countries, including arms deals and joint training exercises.
For some Israeli analysts, that’s why Iran’s attacks could still help Israel’s acceptance in the Middle East, even as its reputation plummets over Gaza.
“The full details of how Sunni Arab regimes helped protect Israel, undoubtedly saving Israelis from Iranian missile and drone attacks, may not be known for a while. But it is a historic shift,” Israeli commentator Anshel Pfeffer wrote in a column in the left-leaning newspaper Haaretz. “Arab cooperation in response to Iranian attacks proves that the trend in the region remains toward an Arab-American-Israeli alliance against Iran and its proxies.”
In particular, some hope it might give new impetus to U.S.-led efforts to establish diplomatic ties for the first time between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which before the Gaza war seemed close to success.
In 2019, Saudi oil refineries were attacked by the Houthi rebels, a Yemeni militia backed by Iran. Riyadh seeks greater security cooperation with the United States to avoid similar future aggression – an arrangement the United States says is possible only if Riyadh also formally recognizes and cooperates with Israel.
But the chances of such a deal remain slim as the war in Gaza continues and Israel’s right-wing government shuns any discussion of establishing a Palestinian state after the fighting ends – a key Saudi demand.
“Diplomatically, I will seize this opportunity to work to restore and revitalize regional cooperation,” said Rabinovich, a former Israeli ambassador. “But obstacles remain,” he added. “What are your thoughts on the Palestinian issue?”
Gabby Sobelman and Jonatan Rice contributed reporting.
