One vows to fight Iran’s enemies, the other vows to make peace with the world. One intends to double down on social restrictions, the other promises to relax harsh rules against young people and women. One calls himself an Islamic ideologue, the other a pragmatic reformer.
The race for Iran’s next president has become so intense that for the first time in more than a decade the outcome is unpredictable, with a runoff to determine the winner set for Friday after a general election the week before failed to produce a candidate with the required 50 percent of votes.
The outcome could depend on how many Iranians who did not vote in the general election decide to attend the runoff. Turnout hit a record low of 40% last week, with most Iranians boycotting the vote out of anger at the government or alienation and apathy over the failure of previous administrations to bring about meaningful change.
Facing numerous challenges at home and abroad, voters were faced with a choice between two very different views on governing the country. The two candidates represented two ends of the political spectrum: an ultra-conservative hardliner known for his dogmatic ideas named Sayyid Jalili, and a reformist named Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian, who won voters’ support by calling for a moderate approach in foreign and domestic policies.
Jalili has refused to compromise with the West, saying Iran should develop its economy by expanding ties with other countries, primarily Russia and China. A former nuclear negotiator, he opposed the 2015 nuclear deal, arguing it made too many concessions, and supported laws forcing women to wear headscarves and restrictions on the internet and social media.
Pezeshkian has vowed to revive the economy by negotiating with the West to lift sanctions, and has vowed to abolish the morality police responsible for enforcing the headscarf law, lift internet restrictions and rely on technocrats to run the country.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East program at Chatham House, said: “This election is about a race of trends, not candidates. Trends reflect attempts to preserve revolutionary values, Islamic ideology and resistance within Iran, rather than an alternative that is not reform but a more moderate and open social and political climate.”
Under Iran’s theocratic system, the president does not have the power to overturn major policies that could lead to the kind of change many Iranians want to see. That authority rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The two previous presidents who were elected in landslides promised change but failed to deliver, leading to widespread disappointment.
However, analysts say the president is not completely powerless. He sets the domestic agenda, selects cabinet members and even has some influence on foreign policy.
Khamenei said on Wednesday he was disappointed with the low turnout in the first round and acknowledged some dissatisfaction with Islamist rule. But he rejected suggestions that the low turnout was a rejection of the current system and called on people to vote.
“We have said this time and again,” he said. “The participation of the people is support for the system of the Islamic Republic, a source of honor, a source of pride.”
Polls open at 8 a.m. on Friday and close in the evening. Turnout is expected to be slightly higher because the race is deeply polarized and many fear the emergence of an ultra-hardline government.
Mr. Jalili is a member of the fringe but influential hardline party Paydari, whose followers view him more as a thought leader than a politician. Dr. Pezeshkian, a cardiologist who has served as health minister and member of parliament, was until recently little known outside political and health circles.
Their lineups of advisers and campaign teams reflect stark differences in their policies and give voters a glimpse of what each administration might look like.
Jalili’s team includes conservative hardliners who have vowed that Jalili’s presidency will continue the “resistance policy” of former President Ibrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash in May, leading the government to call emergency elections. Military commanders and senior clerics have backed Jalili, praising his passion on religious and revolutionary issues.
Dr Pezeshkian has assembled a team of experienced technocrats, diplomats and ministers, including former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who are campaigning for Jalili across the country, mostly warning of the end of the world if he is elected.
“The election on Friday, July 5, is about the future,” Zarif said Tuesday during a virtual town hall on the social media app Club House, where thousands of Iranians gather every night to discuss the election. “In reality, we have a referendum. The two choices are as different as night and day,”
Reformists are hoping for a clear defection from the conservative camp, where Jalili has long been a controversial figure. Analysts say many conservatives view Jalili as too extreme and fear his presidency would deepen the rift between the government and the people and put Iran on a path to conflict with the West.
Opinion polls conducted by government agencies appear to indicate that a significant portion of voters who support the more moderate conservative candidate, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bakr Ghalibaf, will flock to Dr. Pezeshkian to prevent Mr. Jalili from running for president.
“We saw an increase in turnout not because voters necessarily support Dr. Pezeshkian, but because they are absolutely afraid and repulsed by Mr. Jalili,” Ali Akbar Behmanesh, a reformist politician who heads Dr. Pezeshkian’s campaign in Mazandaran province, said in a telephone interview. He said his campaign’s polls showed they had nearly half of Mr. Ghalibaf’s votes.
Many Iranians remain determined to boycott the election. But some said in interviews and on social media that they were changing their minds, largely because they feared Jalili’s rise to power.
Babak, 37, a businessman in Tehran who asked that his last name not be used for fear of retaliation, said he and his family would break the boycott and vote for Dr. Pezeshkian. “We have been hesitating about what to do, and finally we decided that we must try to stop Jalili or we will suffer more,” he said.
Keyvan Samimi, a prominent political activist who did not vote in the first round, said In a video message posted on social media A senior Shia cleric from Tehran said he had decided to back Dr Pezeshkian. “We are casting a protest vote to save Iran,” he said. Frenzy against Mr Jalili has grown as the vote approaches. Prominent politicians have likened him to the Taliban and accused him of running a “shadow government”. A senior Shia cleric and scholar has urged Iranians to say no to Mr Jalili’s “divine ignorance”.
Jalili’s supporters have fought back, accusing the reformists of name-calling and fear-mongering. They have countered by calling Pezeshkian a puppet of former moderate President Hassan Rouhani. They say Pezeshkian lacks a real plan and is rushing ahead on issues beyond his authority as president – especially his promises to abolish the widely hated morality police and normalize relations with the United States.
“Jalili is definitely not a doctrinaire,” Reza Salehi, a 42-year-old conservative who works in public relations and campaigned for Jalili, said in an interview in Tehran, adding that the candidate was more prepared to govern and that the so-called shadow government was more of a think tank than a conspiracy as his rivals claimed.
“This is a group of experts who study and investigate every aspect of government, they have an organizational chart, they study the policies implemented by various departments to find solutions and plans, and they have been advising the government for many years,” Mr. Salehi said.
Analysts say the runoff remains unpredictable. Some say Dr. Pezeshkian might be allowed to run as a symbolic reformist candidate to boost turnout, but he has at least become a wild card.
“It is not clear whose name will finally come out of the ballot box as the two candidates are evenly matched,” Nasir Imani, a Tehran-based political analyst, said in a telephone interview. “What is certain is that in this election, saying ‘no’ is a trend. Either reject the election, reject this candidate or reject that candidate.”
Riley Nikunazar Belgium provided reporting.
