In the early hours of Friday morning, Mehrdad, an engineer in Isfahan, Iran, woke up to the sound of an explosion that shook his windows and shook the ground. In Tehran, passengers about to board a flight were suddenly told that the airspace was closed.
They soon learned that Israel had attacked Iran.
As rumbles and gunshots were heard in the distance, Mehdad, 43, realized the Israelis were targeting a military base on the outskirts of the city. He said in a telephone interview that he and his pregnant wife still feared a war would break out.
“I think Israel wants to test the waters and evaluate last night’s attack,” Mehdad said. He, like others interviewed for this article, asked that his last name be withheld to avoid reprisal. “I fear the worst is coming, but I also hope this is the end of it.”
Apparently so does the Iranian government. A week ago, the Iranian government promised a forceful response to any Israeli attack on Iranian territory, but now appears no longer on the verge of war with Israel. Analysts say that faced with serious economic problems and an uneasy public, the government appears to have adopted a dual-track policy, declaring victory over Israel while suppressing domestic violence.
“For the establishment, external and internal challenges are two sides of the same coin,” Abbas Abdi, a prominent Tehran-based analyst and author, said in a telephone interview. “Because of the dissent in Israel and internally, they are taking an aggressive approach because they believe both issues have reached a boiling point and if they don’t do anything, it will only get worse.”
The tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel over the past three weeks have been alarming and alarming, adding to the shadow war they have waged for decades, raising fears of a regional war.Iran responded Israel launches deadly attack on its embassy compound in DamascusSyria, by Launched over 300 drones and missiles Directly targeting Israel for the first time. Most of them were intercepted.
World leaders begged Israel to respond with restraint, and it did so on Friday, striking an Iranian air base with drones. The attack damaged the radar The S-300 system responsible for the air defense of the Natanz nuclear facility in central Iran. Israel also fired air-to-surface missiles at Iran but deliberately caused little damage. Iranian state news media and officials subsequently downplayed the attack.
Nasser Imani, a Tehran-based analyst close to the government, said Iran has effectively dealt with Israel and now has the ability to de-escalate the situation.
“Iranian officials do not want war with Israel,” he said in a telephone interview. “Iran is going to end it there and no longer be directly involved because they believe they have established sufficient deterrence at the moment.”
Tensions with Israel have increased as Iran teetered from crisis to crisis. Iran’s currency, the rial, has plummeted this month since the standoff began.Reached recently Over 660,000 rials to US dollars In unofficial markets, it is the most accurate measure of the economy.
Although the inflation rate is lower than the 40% in previous years, the annual growth rate is still 32%. Iranians have long complained of corruption and economic mismanagement by the ruling clergy and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has a significant role in the economy.
More broadly, the government’s legitimacy is continually challenged by angry and resentful citizens who have taken to the streets in recent years. As a new generation of Iranians demands social and political freedom and prosperity, Iran’s government has long struggled to preserve the revolutionary and Islamic ideals of the 1979 revolution that brought it to power.
The largest recent uprising, the 2022 uprising led by women, began as a protest against a law requiring women and girls to cover their hair and bodies with loose clothing. It quickly evolved into protesters demanding an end to clerical rule. Voter boycotts marred parliamentary elections in March, leading to record-low turnout and a large number of blank ballots.
Iranians say the government is determined to prevent a recurrence of the epidemic and has launched a domestic offensive. Officials said the government sent in security forces to crack down on women who failed to comply with hijab laws.
Hours after Iranian government launches attack on Israel in retaliation for Damascus attack Several battalions of security forces were deployed to flood the streets Tehran and many other cities. It has violently cracked down on women who violated hijab rules, shut down dozens of businesses that hosted women who did not wear headscarves, and threatened to punish anyone who dared to criticize or question its attacks on Israel.
Iranians described a tense atmosphere of security and surveillance in their daily lives this week. Fahimeh, 32, said in a telephone interview that she was on her way to a gym in Tehran last Monday when she encountered a heavily fortified checkpoint that randomly stopped cars to check female drivers and passengers. She said a separate group was stopping women walking by, many of whom had their hair uncovered. She was so scared that she took out a scarf from her bag and covered herself.
Many women say hijab crackdowns and tensions with Israel have exacerbated their anxieties.
“Life is already difficult and I don’t know why the regime is doing this,” Pune, a 50-year-old English teacher in Tehran, said by phone. “Why is there a crackdown on hijab when they are at war with Israel? Everyone is nervous and excited.”
Morality police rebuke, in several videos that went viral on social media and posted on BBC Persian, Beating a woman and dragging her into a police car. A video shows that he was very emotional Woman collapsed on the sidewalk After an altercation with police, she struggled to breathe as she was surrounded by passers-by.
The scenes sparked outrage and condemnation, especially since the moral police were allegedly abolished during protests 2022, triggering Mahesa Amini dies, 22, in police custody. She was detained for violating hijab regulations.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced on April 13 that the government had decided to reinstate the headscarf rule, prompting sharp criticism even from the government’s supporters. They say these movements have backfired in the past and will only sow division and hatred in the new era. A period of high tension with foreign adversaries.
“At this time-sensitive moment, the country needs unity and calm against the Zionist regime,” said Mohammad Yousefinejad, a conservative lawyer and government supporter. said in a social media post. He added that the activation of the ethics police stemmed from the Home Office’s “stupidity and lack of understanding of priorities”.
In the current climate, however, the government is particularly intolerant of criticism of its tense relationship with Israel. Analyst Abdi wrote a column in the Etemad newspaper last week saying there was no need for Iran to respond to Israel and warned that a war would bring social and economic costs. The judicial department immediately announced the opening of a criminal case against him and the newspaper.
Two prominent journalists, Hossein Dehbashi and Yashar Soltani, were summoned to court on charges of “undermining the psychological safety of society.” social media posts According to local news media, concerns were expressed about the expansion of the war.
“Notification received,” Mr. Dehbashi Said in X’s post last week. “I won’t be writing for a while.”
Analysts say the government is likely to pursue policies hostile to Israel for some time and enforce hijab rules without compromise.
“They are trying to send two very strong messages at the same time,” said Sanan Wakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a think tank in London. “On the one hand, Iran is confident enough to attack Israel, but at the same time it is insecure and tries to draw red lines on social and cultural issues at home so that no one underestimates them.”
Riley Nikunazar Reporting from Belgium.
