Narendra Modi once looked up to China. As the leader of a business-friendly Indian state, he has traveled there many times to attract investment and see how his country can learn from its neighbor’s economic transformation. China, He said, “holds a special place in my heart.” Chinese officials hailed his rise to state power as a “political star.”
But soon after Modi became prime minister in 2014, China made it clear that relations between the two countries would not be easy.Just as he hosted Chinese leader Xi Jinping to celebrate his 63rd birthday, and even sat with him on a swing in Riverside Park, hundreds of people Chinese Army The incursion into Indian territory in the Himalayas triggered a week-long standoff.
Ten years later, relations between the world’s two most populous countries have almost completely broken down.Ongoing border incursions escalate into fierce conflict In 2020, this could lead to all-out war. Mr. Modi, Controlling strongman Every lever of India’s power and expanded relations with many other countries appear to be extremely powerless in the face of a break with China.
As Modi seeks a third term in elections that begin on Friday, the tensions have seriously affected the overarching narrative of his campaign: that he is making India a major global power and, by extension, restoring national pride. Away from its 2,100-mile border, China has emerged as a fierce competitor in every path India seeks to expand.
In India’s backyard in South Asia, China has used its vast resources – the fruits of economic reforms implemented decades before India – to challenge India’s dominance, attracting partners through infrastructure deals and gaining access to strategic ports. .
More broadly, China and India Fight for leadership The so-called developing countries in the southern hemisphere. Last year, India hosted the G20 summit as a way to demonstrate its support for poorer countries, but Xi did not attend the event. China is also a major obstacle to India’s bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.
Nirupama Menon Rao, former Indian ambassador to China, said: “Today, the India you encounter may be in many ways you have never seen before.” “I think the Chinese More and more aware of this, they still want to pull us down and put up barriers.”
India’s alienation from China provides an opportunity for Western countries to expand defense and economic ties with New Delhi, a troubling development for Beijing.
India signed a series of agreements with the United States last year strengthen military cooperation. India has also moved closer to Australia and Japan, two other members of the so-called “Quad”, a group dedicated to countering China’s power projection.
Additionally, India sees opportunities as the United States and Europe look for alternatives to China as a manufacturing location for their products.One early success was iPhone production increases significantly in India.
But even with these vulnerabilities, China continues to expose India’s insecurities. China’s economy is about five times the size of India’s, China remains India’s second-largest trading partner (after the United States), and its exports to India are about six times the value of India’s imports. China’s military spending is more than three times that of India, giving its military significant advantages on land, sea and air.
India’s military, which has long struggled to modernize, is now forced to prepare for conflict in two waysIndia is bounded by China to the east and its main rival Pakistan to the west.
Tens of thousands of Indian and Chinese troops remain on alert in the Himalayas after deadly clashes broke out in the disputed eastern Ladakh region four years ago, and the two countries have been beefing up their military presence in the region. Nearly two dozen rounds of talks have failed to result in disengagement.
While the political opposition has sought to paint Modi as weak in the face of Chinese encroachment, the border incursion is unlikely to do him much political harm given the lack of news coverage from key citizens. Sympathetic Indian media.
Still, as India struggles to meet the basic needs of its 1.4 billion people, Mr. Modi has been forced to prioritize billions of dollars in border infrastructure and military upgrades. His government is drawing up plans to relocate hundreds of border villages as a second line of defense against the encroaching threat from China.
Mr Modi’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, admit There are “no easy answers” to the recent dilemma posed by India’s aggressive neighbor. “They are changing, we are changing,” Mr Jaishankar explain. “How do we find the balance?”
In a book published in 2020, just as he took over as Mr Modi’s trusted foreign policy architect, Jaishankar wrote that tensions between the United States and China set the stage for India’s choices in an “interconnected world”. The “global context” is set. Against everyone. ” He wrote that India’s ambitions as a great power need to be balanced: “engage with the United States, manage China, cultivate Europe, and reassure Russia.” “
India’s emergence as a large and growing economy enables it to hold its own in a polarized and uncertain world, working with any partner who can benefit from it.
Although India has expanded defense ties with the United States over the past decade and doubled bilateral trade to about $130 billion in goods alone, it has resisted U.S. demands that it reconsider its ties with Russia The pressure on strong relationships. India has also deepened its ties with Europe and the Middle East. Trade volume with the United Arab Emirates alone reaches $85 billion.
While India remains wary of becoming a pawn in the West’s struggle with Beijing and has not forgotten its frosty history with the United States, China has become an inevitable focus after being a minor threat for much of India’s modern history.
India’s socialist founding prime minister expressed tolerance for communist China, but that amiable attitude was shattered by a month-long war in 1962 that left thousands dead. In the 1980s, while the invasion continued, relations began to normalize, with open channels of communication easing tensions and boosting trade.
“This is a different China,” said Ms. Rao, a former senior diplomat.
Things changed in the years before Modi took office, she said. As its economy soared, China began to flex its muscles—investing heavily in its Belt and Road infrastructure initiative, which India viewed as a threat to its security and sphere of influence, and taking more aggressive action along its borders and in the Indian Ocean.
Nonetheless, Mr. Modi, Blacklisted by the United States When he became the country’s leader, he continued to lend a helping hand to Beijing over his role in bloody religious unrest. As prime minister, he did not let the embarrassment of China’s 2014 invasion affect his red carpet welcome to Xi Jinping. His subtle message – a warning that “a little toothache can paralyze the whole body” – carries the hope that Xi Jinping will change his mind.
This hope was dashed by deadly clashes in eastern Ladakh in 2020. Now, New Delhi has apparently accepted the long-term threat from China, a shift illustrated by Modi’s push to build roads and tunnels in border areas to support large military presences.
Over the past five years, more than 2,200 miles of roads have been built along the border. In Kashmir, more than 2,000 workers have been busy for three years digging a high-altitude tunnel that will improve connectivity to Ladakh.
Once completed, the tunnel project, which will cost more than $850 million, will keep traffic flowing year-round and reduce travel time by hours.
“For four months, the Indian Army’s supplies were cut off because the road would be closed,” said project leader Harpal Singh. “After this tunnel is built, this will not happen again.”
Modi’s government is also trying to revitalize hundreds of villages along the border to strengthen defences.
Through a program called “Vibrant Villages,” the government is working to develop infrastructure, expand services and foster tourism in the hope of reversing the phenomenon of economic migration that creates “ghost villages.”
Sonam Murup, a retired Indian Army officer from Ladakh, said of infrastructure development in his region: “What India could do in the last 20 years must now be done in two years. Finish.”
“Our situation is much better now,” he said. “But when you look to the Chinese side, you see the villages are brightly lit.”
Joy Dong contributed reporting from Hong Kong.
