Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel this weekend has shaken Israel’s assumptions about its enemies, undermining its long-standing calculation that greater Israeli aggression would best deter Iran.
For years, Israeli officials have said publicly and privately that the harder Iran was hit, the more cautious it would be in striking back. Iran’s barrage Saturday’s more than 300 drones and missiles – Iran’s first direct attack on Israel – overturned that logic.
This attack was against Israel launched air strikes earlier this month Killed seven Iranian military officials in Syria. Analysts say this is a sign that Tehran’s leaders are no longer content to fight Israel through various proxies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah or Yemen’s Houthis, but are preparing to confront Israel directly.
“I think we miscalculated,” said Sima Shine, a former research director at Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency.
“Israel’s accumulated experience is that Iran does not have good means of retaliation,” Ms. Shine added. “There was a strong feeling that they didn’t want to be involved in the war.”
Instead, Iran created “a whole new paradigm,” Ms. Shine said.
Iran’s response ultimately did little damage to Israel, in large part because Iran signaled its intentions early, giving Israel and its allies several days to prepare a robust defense. Even before the attack was over, Iran issued a statement saying it had no plans to further attack Israel.
Still, Iran’s attacks reverse course The year-long shadow war Israel and Iran are locked in a direct confrontation — though that could still be contained, depending on Israel’s response. Iran has demonstrated that it possesses considerable firepower that it can only withstand with significant support from Israel’s allies such as the United States, underscoring how much damage it could do without that protection.
The relationship between Iran and Israel was once relatively ambiguous, and Israel even Selling weapons to Iran During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. But after the war, their relationship fell apart. Iranian leaders have become increasingly critical of Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians, and Israel has become increasingly wary of Iran’s efforts to build a nuclear program and its support for Hezbollah.
For more than a decade, both countries have quietly targeted each other’s interests in the region, rarely announcing any separate actions.
Iran supports Hamas and funds and arms other regional militias hostile to Israel, some of which have been engaged in low-level clashes with Israel since Hamas launched a deadly attack on Oct. 7. Likewise, Israel has frequently targeted these proxies for assassinations of Iranian officials, including killings on Iranian soil, but it has avoided taking formal responsibility.
Both countries have Target merchant ship linked to its adversaryand carry out Network attacks Israel repeatedly attacks each other destroyed Iran’s nuclear program.
Now, the war is out in the open.This is largely because some analysts believe Israel miscalculated when it launched the April 1 attack Destroyed part of the Iranian embassy complex Seven Iranian military officials, including three senior commanders, were killed in Damascus, Syria, one of Iran’s closest allies and proxies.
The attack came after Israeli leaders repeatedly said that greater pressure on Iran would encourage Tehran to scale back its ambitions in the Middle East. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said in January: “Intensifying pressure on Iran is crucial and may prevent regional escalation in other areas.”
Instead, the Damascus attack led directly to Iran’s first attack on sovereign Israeli territory.
Analysts said Israel may have misunderstood Iran’s position because of Iran’s lack of response to an earlier Israeli assassination of a senior Iranian official.
Although Israeli leaders have long feared that Iran could one day build and launch nuclear missiles into Israel, they have become accustomed to targeting Iranian officials without direct retaliation from Tehran.
In one of its most brazen attacks, Israel killed In 2020, Iran’s top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was on Iranian soil.As recently as December, Israel was accused of kill Top Iranian general Sayyed Razi Mousavi launched attacks in Syria, and Iranian military officials provided advice and support to the Syrian government. These and several other assassinations did not trigger Iranian retaliatory attacks against Israel.
Iranian analyst Ali Vaez said that part of the reason for Iran’s response this time was that some circles in Iranian society were angry at Iran’s previous negative attitude.
“I have never seen bottom-up pressure on the regime over the past 10 days,” said Vaz, an analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
Vaez added that Iran also needs to show proxies such as Hezbollah that it can safeguard its interests. “If Iran dares not retaliate for such a brazen attack on its diplomatic facilities in Damascus, it will severely damage Iran’s relations and the Iranians’ credibility in the eyes of their regional partners,” he said.
For some analysts, the Israeli attack on Damascus may prove to be a smaller miscalculation than initially appeared. Iran’s airstrikes have diverted attention from Israel’s faltering war against Hamas and reaffirmed Israel’s ties with Western and Arab allies who have become increasingly critical of Israel’s behavior in Gaza.
Michael Koplow, an Israel analyst at the Israel Policy Institute, said the fact that Iran gave Israel so long to prepare for an attack could be a sign that Tehran remains relatively deterrent, seeking only the semblance of a major response while trying to avoid The situation escalated significantly. Forum, a New York-based research group.
“To me, the jury is still out,” Mr. Koplow said.
“The question is whether this is intended to actually harm Israel, or whether this is supposed to make it look like Israel is responding forcefully but actually shows that they are not,” Mr. Koplow said. Add to.
But for others, things are already clear. Aaron David Miller, an analyst at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Israel made two major strategic mistakes in less than a year: Before Oct. 7, Israeli officials publicly — and incorrectly — concluded that Hamas had been prevented from attacking Israel.
Then Hamas launched deadliest attack in the history of Israel.
“When it comes to conception, Israel is 0 to 2,” Mr. Miller said. “They failed to correctly interpret Hamas’ capabilities and motivations on October 7, and they clearly misjudged how Iran would respond to the April 1 attack.”
Gabby Sobelman contributed reporting.
