When Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meroni convened the leaders of the Group of Seven nations at a luxury resort on the Adriatic Sea on Thursday, she might have assumed her guests were seeking asylum.
Apart from Ms. Meloni herselfEach leader arrived at the meeting feeling trapped, beleaguered or in crisis — an ominous reflection of the turmoil in Western politics. Nor does it bode well for the outcome of a meeting already facing thorny challenges, including Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s global economic competition.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is three weeks away from a general election in which his Conservative Party is expected to win. Loss of power. French President Emmanuel Macron Early parliamentary elections Previously, his party suffered a crushing defeat to the far-right in the European elections.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Social Democratic Party Show humility in those electionsAnd President Biden In the melee Like his predecessor, former President Donald J. Trump, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida faces growing turmoil within his Liberal Democratic Party and could lose his job this fall.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Facing a disappointed public After more than eight years in office, he spoke on behalf of his fellow leaders by lamenting the rise of populism in Europe and the United States.
“We are seeing the rise of a populist right in almost every democratic country,” Trudeau said Monday. “It is concerning that political parties are choosing to exploit anger, fear, division and anxiety.”
Concerns about the role of the G7 are nothing new: The seven countries’ share of global gross domestic product is shrinking. Leaders from China and Russia were somewhat conspicuous by their absence. (Russia was suspended from the group after it annexed Crimea in 2014 and withdrew permanently in 2017.)
In response to the changes in the world, Meroni invited a group of non-Western leaders to visit Italy: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and UAE President Prince Mohammed bin Zayed. She also invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Pope Francis.
Some of these leaders have their own burdens on their shoulders. Modi was just elected for his third term, but His party’s majority in parliament disappearedMr. Erdogan suffered Local election setbackWhile those leaders will not attend the caucus, some of them will hold individual meetings with Biden and other leaders as a reminder of how the world’s power dynamics are changing.
Analysts and diplomats say domestic politics will influence G7 affairs in big and small ways. With a new government likely in place ahead of a general election in Britain, Sunak is not expected to sign off on major commitments on trade with China or sanctions against Russia. Instead, his attendance at the summit could end up being a farewell trip.
“How can you make promises if there’s a change of government?” said Agathe Demarais, senior policy fellow and director of the geoeconomics program at the European Council on Foreign Relations in London. “‘Wait and see’ might be the key word.”
Although Biden does not have to face voters until November, analysts say he is likely to focus on the domestic electoral fight as well as personal issues, including His son Hunter was convictedfaces three felony charges for lying on a federal firearms application in 2018.
To a lesser extent, domestic politics could also constrain Scholz and Macron, both of whom are in a more vulnerable position after the election. Far-right parties gain ground In the European Parliament elections.
The rise of populism could divide Western leaders on some issues and give its biggest rival an edge on others. Far-right parties tend to be more hostile to free trade but friendlier toward China and less supportive of tougher sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin. Those issues will be top of mind when the leaders meet Thursday in the coastal town of Fasano.
The Biden administration is urging Europe to impose higher tariffs on Chinese exports of electric vehicles, batteries and semiconductors. Just like in MayThe United States is trying to build support for secondary sanctions against Russia, a major escalation that would target companies doing business in Russia.
But Ms. Desmarais said: “The Europeans know that Trump can overturn any promise Biden makes.” Given their own weakened position, she said: “If they sign a deal, there is also a risk that it will not be approved by parliament.”
Macron, who lost the European elections to far-right Marine Le Pen, dissolved France’s National Assembly and called early elections that are due to end on July 7. Although he will remain president for another three years regardless of the outcome, his powers have been weakened and he may be forced to share power with an opposition prime minister.
Political analysts have drawn parallels between Macron’s risky move and the fateful decision made by former British Prime Minister and current Foreign Secretary David Cameron, who held a referendum in 2016 on Britain’s exit from the European Union.
In Germany, Scholz’s Social Democratic Party came third in the European Parliament elections, behind the opposition Christian Democratic Party and the far-right Alternative for Germany party that swept the former East Germany. Scholz’s coalition partners, the Greens and the Free Democrats, also performed poorly.
While Scholz is unlikely to call new elections, as Macron has done, he faces pressure to do so. He and his government are deeply unpopular and internal bickering has paralyzed the government. German support is seen as key to tariffs on China, a major electric car rival, and secondary sanctions on Russia.
Even before the political turmoil, Europe and the United States could not agree on what to do with nearly $300 billion in Russia’s foreign exchange reserves The funds were frozen by Western banks. The White House initially wanted to seize all the funds to rebuild Ukraine. But European countries hesitated, fearing that such a move would undermine the stability of the global financial system.
Now, the G7 is considering a plan to repay frozen assets in installments so Ukraine can quickly access the $50 billion or so debt, and then use the profits and interest earned to repay the debt in installments. This would replace the EU’s plan to repay Ukraine’s debt with profits and interest alone. However, there are still differences on how to guarantee these debts after the assets are returned or interest rates plummet.
Diplomats praised Melloni’s attempt to engage with new leaders, but Peter Ricketts, a former British national security adviser, said “it betrays a legitimate sense that the G7 is now an old organization.”
The clearest winner in all this may be Ms. Meroni herself. Although she also led a far-right party to power, she Establish an image As someone that Europe’s centrist leaders can work with. She will host the Borgo EgnaziaThe resort is popular with celebrities including pop star Justin Timberlake, who tied the knot with actress Jessica Biel here in 2012.
Diplomats said that despite disputes over trade with China and sanctions on Russia, the leaders were united on two major issues at hand: support for Ukraine and support for President Biden’s efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza war.
“From a leadership perspective, this is perhaps a welcome change to a difficult domestic environment,” Ricketts said.
