The escalating civil war could tear apart the country of about 55 million people, located between China and India. This had an international impact, but the conflict did not receive widespread attention.
Over the past six months, resistance fighters in Myanmar’s heartland have stunned analysts by defeating the ruling military junta in battle after battle. This raises the possibility that the military government is at risk of collapse.
The war is already a human rights disaster. Myanmar’s civil unrest since a 2021 military coup has severely damaged its economy and plunged millions into extreme poverty. its reputation as a drug hub, Online Fraud Center Money laundering is increasingly rampant. Its instability creates strategic conundrums for China, India, the United States and other countries.
This is a primer.
A coup begins the path to disaster.
Myanmar is not a democracy.The military junta allowed elections more than a decade ago, allowing Aung San Suu Kyithe daughter of an assassinated independence hero, sit in parliament. She later led a civilian government. But the junta controls key levers of power through a military-drafted constitution.
In 2021, generals arrested Aung San Suu Kyi — by then Lost its halo as a human rights icon – and stage a coup.This triggered demonstrations brutal repression There has been resistance from mostly peaceful protesters, as well as waves of armed fighters.
Civil wars are not new. Myanmar Army The country has been at war since the former British colony gained independence in 1948.The recent fighting is unusual because many civilians from the country’s Bamar majority Take up arms with minorities Been fighting the military for decades.
The fighting has killed thousands of civilians.
In the years before the coup, Myanmar was emerging from isolation under decades of repressive military rule.Companies such as Ford, Coca-Cola and MasterCard big investment. In Yangon, the largest city, visitors wander among gilded pagodas and grand colonial-era buildings.
Now, the bombing has put Yangon on edge, with Western countries imposing economic sanctions on members of the military regime and thousands of middle-class people fleeing into the jungle to fight alongside ethnic rebels.
Civilians are bearing the cost.The fighting has left thousands dead Nearly three million people have been displaced.The country is now riddled with landmines and extreme inflation has caused The middle class is shrinking sharplyAccording to the United Nations.
this Health sector in crisispartly because the regime target doctor. Among many problems, childhood vaccinations have largely stopped and malaria has increased dramatically. Experts worry about the spread of HIV and tuberculosis.
Rebels seized territory.
Since October, rebels have seized large swaths of territory in Shan State, an ethnic minority confederation near the border with China. captured several towns. Some used drones to attack the capital, Naypyitaw, and advanced rapidly in several border areas.In recent weeks, Karen rebels Capture a trading town A once-unthinkable target lies east of Yangon and adjacent to the Thai border. Neighboring Karenni state may be the first to completely escape military control.
Progress has also been made in the army-controlled northeastern state of Kachin Lucrative jade mineand Rakhine state on the western border, where Myanmar soldiers and their militia allies once be slaughtered Members of the Rohingya Muslim minority, hundreds of thousands of Flee to neighboring Bangladesh.
Some analysts say the Arakan Army, a powerful militia in Rakhine state, may soon seize the heavily fortified state capital Sittwe.
The conflict reverberated internationally.
The war had regional and international implications.Russia and other countries have sold Myanmar’s military Weapons worth at least a billion dollars Since the 2021 coup, according to the United Nations.China sees Threats to infrastructure projects It has provided funding across the country.India, which has long been worried about chaos at the border, Deport Burmese refugees.
Myanmar’s eastern neighbor Thailand is also concerned that the United Nations expects 40,000 or more refugees to cross the border this year. Bangladesh sees obstacles in its efforts to repatriate the Rohingya.The United States has already begun Provide non-lethal assistance Armed resistance groups.
So why doesn’t the war get more attention? One reason may be that Aung San Suu Kyi went from being a Nobel Peace Prize winner under house arrest by generals to an apologist for a campaign of massacre against the Rohingya.
Richard Horsey, a Myanmar expert and adviser to the International Crisis Group, said her fall from grace killed the “democracy and generals narrative” that had helped fuel interest in the war.
“The fairy tale has disappeared,” he said. “And, you know, Sudan, right? Haiti? They also don’t get that much attention. “
Huang Ruili Contributed reporting.
