The last time India went to the polls in a national election, in 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party won a resounding victory. But even so, more than 60% of voters still voted for other parties.
That Modi has established such a dominant position in parliament, despite falling far short of the support of a majority of the population, reflects the dysfunction and fragmentation of the political opposition.
After India gained independence in 1947, the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, ruled for decades under the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. The party’s position has now declined significantly: in 2019, it won 52 seats in parliament, compared with 303 for the BJP. The party is not expected to do much in this year’s six-week election, which starts on Friday.
This is why India’s political opposition is in such trouble.
Congress is nothing more than an empty shell.
The Congress party, long at the center of Indian politics, has struggled to find direction and offer an ideological alternative to the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, which has stymied the broader opposition’s fight against Modi.
The Congress party faced a leadership crisis, a series of rebellions and internal strife. Even after losing to Modi twice in a row, the party has maintained its dynastic leadership. It has once again chosen Rahul Gandhi, the son, grandson and great-grandson of the Indian prime minister, as its face in the fight against Modi.
Mr Gandhi has sought to increase his political clout by leading long marches across the country, including more than one. 2,000 miles. But just when he seemed to be finding momentum, the BJP moved to put the brakes on it.
After his first march drew huge crowds, the BJP mired him in a court battle that led to his ouster expelled from parliament. Later, India’s Supreme Court returned him to his seat.
His party’s defeat in several key state elections in recent months has also derailed it and exposed the extent of its deep-rooted problems.
Party coalitions are difficult to unite.
In the months leading up to the election, a series of opposition parties formed an alliance with the catchy name “India”, short for the less catchy “Inclusive Alliance for National Development of India.”
The formation of the alliance has caused jitters among BJP leaders and is a sign that the election may not be a one-sided affair.
But a series of bitter disagreements among coalition members over seat allocation has disappointed many supporters. In some states, parties in coalition governments have failed to overcome long-standing differences, prioritizing protecting local forces over challenging Modi’s national ambitions.
The chief minister of one state, a founder and prominent figure of the opposition group, even switched to the BJP. Mr Modi has been relentless in trying to split the alliance, luring some members with incentives and languishing others with investigations and prison sentences.
Modi uses the government to go after his opponents.
Opposition groups say Modi lets government agencies do his political work for him. They appear to have good reason: About 90% of cases involving politicians pursued by the country’s top financial crimes agency since Modi came to power in 2014 have been against opposition leaders.
Weeks before this year’s election, the tax agency under Modi froze the Congress party’s bank accounts, paralyzing the party. Modi’s government has also sent two opposition chief ministers to jail.
While the Congress party has long been the target of Modi’s ire – he has even declared that he wants a “Congress-less India” – the smaller Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has faced particularly harsh criticism. repression.
Analysts say Modi sees the AAP as a potential national challenger as the Congress party declines. The party is in power in Delhi-NCR and Punjab and has made inroads in Modi’s home state of Gujarat.
The opposition attacking line has limited appeal.
The opposition alliance attacks Modi mainly on two issues: It believes growing authoritarianism is transforming India’s democracy into one-party rule; and it believes political corruption is enriching a small elite.
Opposition leaders also pointed to rising inequality and a severe shortage of jobs in India, especially for its large young population.
It’s unclear whether the attacks have had much of an impact on Modi’s standing. He amassed immense power and popularity through an effective combination of Hindu majoritarianism, strong welfare programs and his charisma.
Modi also has enormous control over India’s information channels, with broadcast media being particularly biased to his will.
Mujib Mashar Contributed reporting.
