After Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash, Israeli officials quickly dismissed suggestions that they were behind it, with Iran’s state news media saying it was the result of a “technical glitch.”
Analysts said on Monday that while Israel is one of Iran’s biggest enemies, they see little strategic benefit from Raisi’s death and are unlikely to change its attitude toward Tehran.
In Israel, Lacey is seen as a weak figurehead who has little influence over Iran’s foreign policy, especially its support for Israel’s enemies in the Middle East. Israeli experts say his successor is expected to maintain Iran’s stance on Israel, and that the real power in Tehran lies in the hands of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“From an Israeli perspective, I don’t think he accomplished anything by being replaced by some other radical conservative Iranian,” said Sima Shine, a former senior official at Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, who spoke at the The agency focuses primarily on Iran. “The president is not the most important person in Iran,” said Ms. Shain, now an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv-based research group.
With or without Lacey, Israel still views Iran as an existential threat because of its efforts to develop a nuclear program and because of its support for groups hostile to Israel, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
In an effort to limit Iran’s influence, Israel has assassinated Iranian officials and targeted its nuclear facilities and military installations. 2020, Israeli agents killed Iran’s top nuclear scientist uses remote-controlled gun. An Israeli strike in Syria earlier this year killed three senior Iranian military commanders, prompting Iran to respond with a barrage of ballistic and cruise missiles.
But Israel is unlikely to kill Raisi because, unlike veteran scientists and generals, he is ultimately replaceable, said Meir Javidanfar, an Iranian-Israeli professor who teaches Iranian studies at Reichmann University in Israel. Javedanfar said.
He said killing nuclear scientists could slow progress on Iran’s nuclear program, but any Iranian president would likely maintain the same hostility toward Israel.
Professor Javidanfa said “his absence or presence” would not have much impact. “The situation is different for a nuclear scientist who is working on a program that might produce a nuclear bomb to threaten Israel.”
He called Lacey “the foot soldier of the supreme leader,” adding: “He is a loyal servant who has little influence within the regime.”
