Iran’s state media reported on Saturday that a reformist candidate who has criticized a law requiring women to wear headscarves will face a hardline conservative in a presidential runoff next week, in a special vote after Iran’s former leader was killed in a helicopter crash last month.
The second round of voting will be held on July 5, pitting reformist Masoud Pezeshkian against ultra-conservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. The runoff election was due in part to low turnout and a tight race among four candidates, three of whom were vying for conservative votes. Iranian law requires the winner to receive more than 50% of the vote.
Going to the polls again will further fatigue an already apathetic electorate that is unhappy with Iran’s leadership at a time of turmoil at home and abroad. Iran’s economy is struggling under crippling Western sanctions, its citizens’ freedoms are increasingly restricted and its foreign policy is largely set by hard-line leaders.
The campaign initially featured six candidates, five conservatives and one reformist, who stood out for their outspokenness on the issues and their public willingness to attack the status quo. In speeches, televised debates and roundtable discussions, the candidates criticized government policies and ridiculed Iran’s official rosy assessment of economic prospects as a harmful delusion.
Public dissatisfaction with the new president’s ability to bring about change was reflected in low election turnout: only 40% of eligible voters participated, according to the Iranian state news agency.
inside Official results announced On Saturday, Dr. Pezeshkian led with 10.4 million votes (42.4%), followed by Mr. Jalili with 9.4 million votes (38.6%). The third conservative candidate, General Mohammad Bakr Ghalibaf, the current speaker of parliament and former mayor of Tehran, came in third with 3.3 million votes (13.8%).
The low turnout is a blow to the country’s ruling clerics, who use voter participation as a sign of electoral legitimacy and hope to achieve a 50 percent turnout.
In addition to domestic pressures, Iran’s leaders are facing a particularly turbulent period in the region: Israel is at war with the Iranian-backed militant group Hamas in Gaza, and an escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has pitted two Iranian proxy forces against its sworn enemy, Israel.
Despite the campaign’s critics, the candidates are all members of Iran’s political elite, approved by a committee of Islamic clerics and jurists. All but Dr. Pezeshkian are considered conservatives in the party of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator, is likely the candidate closest to Khamenei. He leads the far-right Paydari Party and represents Iran’s most hardline ideological views on domestic and foreign policy. Jalili has said he does not believe Iran needs to negotiate with the United States to achieve economic success.
Dr. Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon who fought in the Iran-Iraq war and also served as a member of parliament and Iran’s health minister, raised his other children alone after his wife and child died in a car accident and never remarried. That, along with his identity as an Azerbaijani, a minority ethnic group in Iran, endeared him to many voters.
Dr. Pezeshkian, who has the backing of former President Mohammad Khatami, has expressed a willingness to engage in nuclear talks with the West and has framed the debate as an economic issue. But his path in the presidential race could become more complicated as conservative votes are no longer split among multiple candidates.
By laying out a deck of cards that increases the conservatives’ chances of winning, Khamenei is signaling that he wants a second-in-command who shares his views and can continue to push the conservative agenda. Ibrahim LacyThe hard-line president was killed in a helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border last month.
The low turnout reflects widespread apathy among Iranians, who also saw a record low turnout in parliamentary elections this year. Frustration has been exacerbated by the government’s violent crackdown on protesters demanding change and its lack of response to the toll that decades of sanctions have taken on the country’s economy, reducing Iranians’ purchasing power.
The recent anti-government demonstrations and subsequent crackdown were largely caused by Mahasa Amini died in 2022Detained for mistakenly wearing the mandatory headscarf and subsequently died in custody.
Acknowledging that the headscarf law is unpopular, candidates have sought to distance themselves from the means used by the country’s Morality Policy to enforce it, which include violence, arrests and fines.
While the headscarf mandate has become a campaign issue, it is unlikely to be repealed and it is doubtful that a new president would ease its enforcement. The protests, led mainly by women, sparked a bloody crackdown ordered by Khamenei, and analysts say any new president should implement his policies.
This is largely because Iran is a theocratic state with a parallel system of governance, where elected institutions are overseen by a designated committee of Islamic clerics and jurists. Key state policy on nuclear, military and foreign affairs is decided by the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The president’s responsibilities focus primarily on domestic policy and economic affairs, but it is still an influential position. Previous presidents have played an active role in shaping foreign policy, including a 2015 deal with the United States in which Iran agreed to shelve its nuclear program in exchange for easing sanctions.
The deal was scuttled by the Trump administration in 2018, and Iran resumed uranium enrichment. In addition to tensions over Tehran’s nuclear program, the United States and Iran have moved closer to direct confrontation over the past year as they vie for influence in the Middle East.
In Gaza, the war between US ally Israel and Hamas has intensified the conflict between the US, Iran and its foreign proxies. Iran sees using these groups as a way to expand its power, but many people, especially those living in cities, believe that the leaders’ strategy is worthless and believe that only through sustained diplomatic efforts can the economy recover.
Riley Nikunazar Contributed reporting.
