France will hold the first round of the general election on Sunday. Early legislative elections President Emmanuel Macron’s surprise announcement this month was a gamble. The country is plunged into deep uncertainty Its future.
Voters are selecting 577 representatives for the National Assembly, the lower and more important chamber of France’s parliament, which will determine the future of Macron’s second term.
If the number of lawmakers opposed to Macron is in the majority again, he will be forced to appoint a political rival as prime minister, which will completely change France’s domestic policy and disrupt its foreign policy. Without a clear majority, France may fall into months of turmoil or political deadlock. Macron has ruled out the possibility of resigning. New legislative elections cannot be called Another year later.
French nationalist, anti-immigration National Rally Macron’s party is widely expected to win the election. A broad coalition of left-wing parties is likely to finish second. Macron’s centrist Ennahda party and its allies are expected to lose many seats.
Most polling stations will close at 6 p.m. local time on Sunday, with large cities closing by 8 p.m. at the latest. National vote forecasts provided by pollsters based on preliminary results are expected after 8 p.m. and are generally reliable. Official results, Ministry of the Interior issuedwill come in all night long.
Following is the expected result.
Voting will be conducted in two rounds and participation is expected to be high.
France has 577 constituencies, each with one seat, covering metropolitan France, overseas departments and territories, as well as French citizens living abroad. In each constituency, the seat is awarded to the candidate who receives the most votes.
Any number of candidates can compete in the first round of elections in each district, but there are specific thresholds for entering the second round, which will be held a week later on July 7.
In most cases, a runoff election will select the two candidates with the most votes, and the one who receives the most votes in the runoff election will win. But there are exceptions.
The candidate who receives more than 50% of the votes in the first round will win outright, as long as those votes account for at least a quarter of the registered voters in the district. In some districts, there may be three or even four candidates in the runoff if the candidates can get at least 12.5% of the registered voters.
Both scenarios have been rare in past years, but are more likely if voter abstention is low, as is expected on Sunday. Polls Turnout in the first round is expected to be over 60%, compared with just 47.5% in 2022.
France’s legislative elections are usually held a few weeks after the presidential vote and usually favor the party that just won the presidency, making the elections less likely to appeal to voters who believe the outcome is predetermined.
But the stakes are much higher this time.
The far right is growing stronger, the left alliance is growing stronger, and the centrist forces are shrinking.
The goal for each party and its allies is to win enough seats to form a working majority. If none of them can do that, France could face months of political turmoil or deadlock.
But if control of the National Assembly falls to Macron’s opposition, he will be forced to appoint a prime minister and cabinet from different parties, which will control domestic policy. In such cases, the president traditionally retains control over foreign policy and defense affairs, but the constitution does not always provide clear guidelines.
National gatherings are far ahead Latest pollsAfter decades on the margins, the anti-immigrant, Eurosceptic far right has Never been so close to governing FranceThis would be a shocking development for a country that has always been at the heart of the European project. The National Rally prime minister could clash with Macron over issues such as France’s contribution to the EU budget or support for Ukraine. War on Russia.
The alliance of the Socialists, Greens, Communists and the far-left France Indomitable party, which is in second place in the polls with about 29 percent support, believes it has a chance to defeat the far right and form its own government. The alliance wants to reverse some of the measures of the Macron government over the past seven years, such as raising the statutory retirement age. It also wants to eliminate corporate tax cuts and tax breaks for the rich, to significantly increase social spending and by significantly increasing the minimum wage.
The campaign is an uphill battle for Macron’s centrist party and its allies. Opinion polls put them in third place with around 20% of the vote, and they are widely predicted to lose many of the 250 seats they currently hold. A number of Macron’s political allies are running — leaders of other centrist parties, some of his own ministers and even the prime minister — and the defeat of any one of them would be a blow.
The first round of election results may not fully reflect the direction of the election.
In 2022, Macron’s centrist coalition and the left The first round was evenly matched The two parties were ahead of all other parties in terms of voter turnout, with each receiving about a quarter of the vote. A week later, the two parties were still ahead of their rivals – but Macron’s coalition won nearly 250 seatsThe left received less than 150 votes.
In other words, while the first round of voting can be indicative of the final outcome, it is not a perfect predictor.
One way to analyze the first round of elections is to look at national voting trends: What percentage of the vote did each party get across the country? This is a good way to see whether the polls accurately predicted the general popularity of the parties and to understand which forces have momentum in the final week of the campaign.
But the national turnout masks a fact: France’s legislative elections are essentially 577 separate races, with every seat decided only after a second round.
Each party’s prospects depend on the number of runoffs its candidates take part in – the more runoffs, the better the party’s chances of winning on July 7. It will also become clearer what kind of matchups they will face.
A lot can happen between election rounds. Voters whose preferred candidate doesn’t make the runoff will either switch to a different candidate or simply stay home.
Political parties will issue local or national voting advice in an attempt to influence the outcome of an election. In the past, parties have often called on their members to vote strategically against the far right, But this strategy has failed.
If candidates fear splitting their votes, they can decide to withdraw from three-way or four-way races; several left-wing parties have already done so. Already announced They will encourage their candidates to do the same.
There will also be another week of campaigning — plenty of time for gaffes, missteps or twists that could change the course of any race.
