Iran’s political succession has become murky after its president and foreign minister were killed in a helicopter crash, but analysts say their deaths are unlikely to change Iran’s strategy of projecting power through heavily armed allied groups in the Middle East.
Those groups Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, multiple militias in Iraq and Hamas in the Palestinian territories are critical to Iran’s ability to exert influence beyond its borders despite being subject to tight economic sanctions for decades important.
Iran cooperates with these groups through the Quds Force, an affiliate of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The IRGC reports directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, rather than to the government led by the president. So even at a time of internal manipulation and uncertainty following the deaths of President Ibrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdullahian on Sunday, analysts expect the groups to There will be no changes to the attack tempo or overall strategy.
On Monday, there were skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces near the Israeli-Lebanese border. On Tuesday morning, an Iraqi group linked to Iran announced an attack on a base in Israel. Iran’s allies appear to be signaling business as usual with attacks that have become commonplace in recent months.
“From the early messages sent by the Iranian regime after the disappearance of the presidential helicopter, it is clear that they want to project a stable image in terms of succession, and the activities of these groups will be part of that,” Trita Passi said. Executive Director of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
He added: “Iran is very aware that this is the country’s most vulnerable moment, so the most important thing for them is to be able to show that they have institutionalized policies that are not dependent on individuals to show that they are capable of dealing with the unforeseen event.”
In a country where the clergy holds ultimate power, a change in the top leadership will be far more significant than a change in president. Experts say Iran views its public handling of Raisi’s death as a signal that it will manage the eventual successor to 85-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei equally well.
Emily Hardin, director of the U.S. Intelligence, National Security and Technology Program, said since it is the Quds Force that manages the militias and provides them with weapons, training and intelligence, there is no reason to expect any significant changes in those relationships. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Iran sees any kind of internal chaos as an opportunity for its enemies, so over the next 50 days they’re going to become more paranoid, which may make them more cautious,” said Ms. Harding, a former CIA analyst focused on the Middle East area.
Harding said there was a caveat, she added, that if proxies were attacked during this period of uncertainty, Iran might be more eager than usual for those groups to retaliate and avoid appearing to be weak.
However, most proxy groups decide on their own every day when and where to launch attacks, making it difficult for Iran to adjust its operations. This means the risk of miscarriage of justice is very high, potentially triggering a cycle of retaliation.
Neither Washington nor Tehran appears to want direct armed conflict, but they came close to it in January when Iranian-backed militias based in Iraq launched an armed conflict. drone attack American base in Jordan. U.S. forces in the region have been hit by more than 100 militia attacks since the war between Israel and Hamas broke out last October, but this attack broke through U.S. air defenses, killing three soldiers and seriously injuring dozens more.
The United States retaliated Attack sites in Iraq and Syria It was used by allied militias, but did not attack Iranian territory, otherwise the situation would have escalated even more seriously.
Since the outbreak of the Gaza war, the Iranian-allied group calling itself the “Axis of Resistance” has demonstrated its ability to launch attacks and destruction across a wide area almost every day.
Armed groups in Iraq and Yemen’s Houthis have launched drones and missiles at Israel. Hezbollah and Hamas fired rockets at Israel, and the Houthis opened fire on international shipping vessels off the coast of Yemen. sink a ship and damaged several others.
Should such an attack fail, the militants would bear the brunt of retaliatory strikes from Israel or the United States, which would largely allow Iran to maintain its power while keeping much of the conflict far from its borders.
Two senior members of the group in Iraq said they did not expect any change in the pattern of attacks.
However, one way it could have at least an indirect impact on these groups is through deadly helicopter crashes in Iran, said Patrick Clawson, a senior research adviser at the Washington Institute who has long followed Iran.
While attention has focused on Raisi’s death, Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian has traveled extensively throughout the Middle East, speaks fluent Arabic and is in regular contact with political leaders of armed groups and the closest factions in their governments, Clausen said.
“Amir Abdullahian spoke Arabic, which was a real advantage. He would mix with the people of the Resistance Axis and talk to them, and he could also talk to their diplomats,” he added The key to how Iran exerts influence over armed groups, he said, is through the relationships it builds with the group’s leaders.
This role was played by General Qassem Soleimani Leader of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards until the United States assassinated him in 2020. His successor, Esmail Qaani, was less well-known and spoke little Arabic, according to some Axis resistance leaders who had worked with him.
That meant the role of helping maintain those relationships fell to Mr. Amir Abdullahian, Mr. Clausen said. Now, it remains an open question whether these groups, some of which are already difficult for Iran to control, will become more difficult to control.
