Throughout the 27-month war in the heart of Europe, President Biden has resisted pressure from numerous allies for Ukraine to join NATO, convinced that such a step could quickly lead U.S. troops into direct combat with Russia, a war he fears could escalate to a nuclear war.
So on Thursday, he rolled out a series of new alternative measures, each designed to show Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Ukrainians that the United States and its allies have no intention of packing up and leaving, as they did in Afghanistan, even if Ukraine remains outside NATO for years.
He signed a 10-year security agreement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, albeit one with vague commitments and an option to withdraw early. Biden described the deal as a long-term guarantee of continued weapons, intelligence support, advice and technology to win current wars and deter new ones.
He said the United States would take the lead in providing Ukraine with a loan of about $50 billion to rebuild destroyed ports and power plants, buy weapons and cover budget shortfalls. The money would be repaid with interest on $300 billion in assets that Putin inexplicably left in Western financial institutions before the February 2022 invasion.
“Our goal is to strengthen Ukraine’s credible defense and deterrence capabilities over the long term,” Biden said shortly after he and Zelenskiy signed the agreement on Italy’s southwest coast, where the Group of Seven nations hold their annual leaders’ meeting.
“We will not back down,” he added, warning Putin that “he cannot wait for us to give up.”
Zelensky expressed effusive gratitude to Biden, even though the security deal and the loan fell far short of what he needed at this critical juncture in the war. Zelensky made no secret of the fact that he was so deeply concerned about his own short-term survival in the face of an ongoing Russian offensive that it was difficult for him to focus on Ukraine’s long-term prospects.
But the bigger worry for Ukraine’s increasingly embattled leaders, and Europe as a whole, is that the agreements themselves may not survive the results of recent elections in the United States and Europe.
The security deal, based on a similar 10-year commitment to Israel, contains no funding — just a promise by the United States to work with Congress to secure the tens of billions of dollars needed. That will likely mean another bitter fight on Capitol Hill, where the slim Republican majority has for months opposed any additional funding commitments and the weapons they have previously purchased. Funding was approved in April.
But Zelensky is more concerned about his often contentious relationship with Biden, who may be attending his last G7 summit. Buried in the fine print of their carefully signed security agreement is the language that “either party may terminate this agreement by providing written notice through diplomatic channels,” which would “take effect after 6 months.”
This is exactly the loophole in the Iran nuclear deal that former President Donald J. Trump exploited, abandoning it in 2018. Trump made no secret of his dislike for Ukraine or his desire to extricate himself from America’s massive financial commitments there. Instead, he insisted he could end the war in 24 hours — presumably by telling Putin that he could keep the territory he had already captured.
“This is a deal that really seizes the moment,” said Seth G. Jones, director of the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a prominent Washington research organization, who had just returned from a visit to Ukraine. “On the one hand, it’s a useful step toward building a long-term relationship with Ukraine. On the other hand, it’s a long way from what Ukraine really wants, which is true NATO membership.” Unlike the document the two men signed so eloquently, this agreement will be difficult to undo.
If the $50 billion loan is granted this year, it will be difficult for a future president to undo it. And the money comes at a perfect time: Ukraine’s budget situation is so dire that it has been forced to sell Some state-owned assets.
Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, one of the architects of the loan program, which uses no Russian principal but the interest it earns, said at an event in New York on Thursday that the program showed Mr. Putin that Ukraine’s allies were “completely united.”
“We intend to provide Ukraine with the resources it needs to wage an effective war against Russia and to support their immediate budgetary needs, and we will provide significant and meaningful resources,” she said.
“This is the first payment, and there will be more if necessary,” Yellen said. “In a sense, we are asking Russia to help pay for the damage it has done.”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Thursday that all Group of Seven countries would participate in the loan, with the European Union likely to contribute half, according to a senior European official. Washington would make up the difference.
But the loan is a race against time and Russia’s capacity for destruction.
In the first two years of the war, people believed that time was on Ukraine’s side—if the war lasted too long, Putin would have to back down. Now, no one is sure that will be the case.
Until recent days, it seemed like the Russians had the momentum for months — but now it has slowed as Biden reversed course and allowed Ukraine to fire U.S.-supplied weapons toward the Russian border near Kharkiv. Biden and his aides called it a “common sense” move that deprived Putin of the opportunity to attack Ukraine without restraint.
The reversal also stems from the Ukrainian leader’s fear that he has run out of options. He clearly lacks troops and air defenses. He may also lack time.
Ukraine’s current precarious situation is markedly different from the situation a few months into the war in 2022, when Russian forces appeared to be crumbling. In 2023, there were hopes that a Ukrainian “counteroffensive” would drive Moscow’s forces out of the country. That hope was dashed.
On Thursday, despite all the talk on all sides of sticking with the war “at all costs,” there was little discussion, at least not heard by reporters, about what a realistic endgame might look like. The new security agreement refers to a “just and lasting peace” but does not define what that means — or what would happen if a just peace and a lasting peace conflict.
Putin appears to have an extremely high tolerance for pain — at least the kind his soldiers suffer.
An average of more than 1,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded every day in May, senior NATO and Western military officials said Thursday, as Ukrainian forces stepped up their offensive as more Western military aid finally arrived after months of delays.
Russia’s offensive on the northeastern city of Kharkiv has “reached its climax” and is not expected to advance any further in the near future, a Western military official said, while Ukrainian attacks on artillery bases inside Russia were beginning to weaken its offensive.
But a senior NATO official gave an assessment at the briefing that Russia is expected to launch a “fairly significant offensive” in the coming weeks in a bloody response to Ukraine’s efforts to restore its military capabilities. The official said Russia’s best hope is to disrupt NATO’s 75th anniversary celebrations in Washington next month.
“None of us should be under any illusions that this summer is going to be an easy one,” the official said.
Only after that difficult period, and through the upcoming election, can Biden and Zelensky think together about Ukraine’s long-term future. Otherwise, nothing is clear, including how long the partnership they agreed on Thursday will last.
Lara Jacks Contributed by Brussels Report, Eric Schmidt From Washington and Steven Erlanger From Bari, Italy.
