Iran’s much-anticipated retaliation for Israel’s killing of a senior military leader sparked a fierce aerial display over Israel and the West Bank.
But in important ways, military analysts say, it was a choreographed spectacle.
Defense officials and military experts said more than 300 drones and missiles flew through Iraqi and Jordanian airspace before being shot down on Saturday night, seemingly designed to create maximum drama while causing minimal damage. As they did in 2020 in retaliation for the U.S. killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, Iranian leaders repeatedly warned this weekend that they would launch an attack.
Iran also staged the attack in retaliation Iranian embassy building hit by air strike In Syria on April 1, both the Israelis and the Americans were able to adjust their air defense systems once Iranian missiles and drones took to the skies.
The result: a massive explosion but relatively little damage to the ground.
Iran’s drones and missiles rarely find their intended targets, and military experts and defense officials say this level of inaccuracy may be intentional.
Two members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Iran planned the attack to send a warning to Israel and act as a deterrent but to avoid triggering a war. The two members spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said Iran sent warnings to countries in the region about 72 hours in advance.
“I think Iran is very worried about what’s going to happen if they get too effective,” said Gen. Joseph L. Votel, the former leader of U.S. Central Command. “It seems kind of interesting to me to give them early notice of what they’re doing.”
The impact of such a massive airstrike could still push Israel, Iran and even the United States into a broader war that President Joe Biden has been trying to avoid. It was Iran’s first direct attack on Israel after decades of shadow war, and Israeli leaders are considering possible responses.
Biden has made clear to Israeli leaders that while the United States is committed to defending Israel, he has no interest in attacking Iran. In fact, the president and his team want to avoid further escalation and are advising Israel that a successful defense against Iranian airstrikes is a major strategic victory that may not require a new round of retaliation, U.S. officials said.
For five hours on Saturday night, Israel proved that, with the help of its allies, it could provide residents with solid protection from deadly airstrikes.
Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, which went into service in 2011, can intercept rockets. But a defense official said that this weekend, Israel was primarily using fighter jets and its Arrow 3 system, which is designed to intercept ballistic missiles outside the Earth’s atmosphere, including those carrying nuclear and other unconventional warheads.
Iron Dome’s interceptor is 6 inches wide and 10 feet long. They rely on sensors and computer guidance to target short-range rockets. Arrow systems can fly longer distances to pursue larger threats.
Israel also uses a system called David’s Sling, which can shoot down drones, missiles and rockets and intercept interceptions by Israeli warplanes, said Jacob Nagel, Israel’s former acting national security adviser.
The attack proved the concept of the Arrow 3 system, which is primarily designed to shoot down incoming missiles occasionally launched by Yemen’s Houthi militia forces. Nagel said the long-range system was used “more than at any other time since its invention” during the Iran attacks. “We found that it actually works.”
“Overall, it’s amazing what has been achieved,” he added. “The Iranians never dreamed that we would intercept so many of them. They must have expected that a large number would be shot down, but they didn’t realize that 99 percent would be intercepted.”
Nagel, however, strongly rejected the notion that Iran was not seeking to cause harm to its goals in Israel. “The symbolism is to launch three or four rockets, not 320” drones and missiles, he said. “They fired every variety in their arsenal.”
Israel received help from the United States, Britain and France. U.S. fighter jets shot down more than 70 exploding drones in the attack, U.S. officials said, two Navy warships in the eastern Mediterranean destroyed four to six missiles and an Army Patriot battery in Iraq shot down at least one Missiles flying overhead. One official said Iran’s launch of more than 300 drones and missiles exceeded U.S. analysts’ expectations.
Jordan, which has criticized Israel’s war in Gaza, said Israeli forces shot down planes and missiles that entered its airspace during the attack.
Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., the retired leader of Central Command, told CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday that Israel has shown it can defend its airspace, cities and people.
“So I think Israel is much stronger this morning than it was yesterday,” he said.
On the face of it, this shows that Iran is getting weaker and that it still has a long way to go before it can live up to its leaders’ frequent calls for the destruction of Israel.
But military analysts and defense officials warned against drawing firm conclusions about Iran’s military capabilities from Saturday night’s display.
General Votel, who led Central Command from 2016 to 2019, said in an interview that Iran proved that weapons launched from its territory could reach Israel, a capability that should allow Israel to Military strategists are concerned.
“They can launch missiles that can reach Israel, even if they are shot down outside Israeli airspace,” Gen. Votel said. “This is concerning, especially for a country that is pursuing a nuclear weapons capability.”
Afshaun Ostovar, an Iranian military expert at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, said Iran demonstrated most, but not all, of its military capabilities.
Many of Iran’s drones are Shahed-136 Kamikazes, the same model used by Russia in Ukraine. The planes were slow-moving and flying low, he said.
Fabian Hinz, an Iranian military expert at the Institute for International and Strategic Studies in Berlin, examined footage of drone and missile launches released by media affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, as well as photos of the wreckage released by Israel, to determine the type of weapons Iran was targeting. Weapons used in the attack. Mr. Ostova analyzed the attack from a strategic perspective, taking into account the weapons used.
Two analysts said Iran launched two types of long-range cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, both developed by Iran’s Guards aerospace arm.
The cruise missile, called Paveh, has a range of about 1,650 kilometers (or 1,000 miles). Iran has supplied the same type of missiles to Yemen’s Houthi militia and Iraqi Shia militant groups. The ballistic missiles, known as Emads, have similar ranges, they said.
Iran also used the Hebar Shekan ballistic missile, one of its newest and most advanced ballistic missiles. The precision-guided missile has a range of 1,450 kilometers, or about 900 miles. Iranian military officials say its warheads can evade missile defense systems.
“The combination of weapons is what you would expect in a large-scale attack against Israel,” Mr Hintz said. “They basically used sophisticated systems to carry out these attacks. Launching over 100 ballistic missiles in a short period of time is an amazing thing, and a coordinated attack using so many different weapons is really a potential move they could take. upper layer.”
