Home News Friday Briefing: French election to watch

Friday Briefing: French election to watch

17
0

French President Emmanuel Macron shocked the country by dissolving parliament and calling early elections after his party was defeated by the far right in the European elections. France was in political turmoil on Sunday as voters went to the polls for the first round of voting.

To get some insight, my colleague Daniel Slotnik spoke with Roger Cohen, Paris bureau chief for The New York Times.

What are the dangers?

Roger: Well, President Macron is betting big. The odds are that the far-right National Rally could win a majority, or even an outright majority, in the country’s parliament. That would mean the end of France’s absolute postwar taboo against the far right from the highest posts in government.

Why is Macron calling for this vote after his disastrous defeat in the European Parliament elections?

Some believe he may be calculating that if the National Alliance enters government now, the party will lose credibility by the time of the 2027 presidential election because governing the country is much more difficult than grumbling outside the gates of power.

Do you think this is a reasonable strategy?

No. I think, first of all, it’s unnecessary. Second, it’s extremely risky. Third, the Olympics are less than three weeks away and all eyes are going to be on France. Fourth, if the far right does win, then the potential for street violence, protests, and chaos increases. So, fifth, is the president really prepared for France to be in chaos when the Olympics start?

Now, none of that might happen. But is that wise? Is that prudent? Is that rational? I really don’t think so.

What do the French people think about this?

The general mood here is one of consternation, confusion and tension, but much of this tension has surfaced, with people worried about violent demonstrations if the far right wins a big victory.

What do you think might happen?

I think the most likely outcome is that the National Rally wins – there’s maybe a 20% chance that they’ll win an outright majority. But more likely, they’ll be the largest party. Macron would then face a parliament dominated by the National Rally, which has a large number of far-left figures, and his party and his relative power in parliament would be greatly weakened.

More on the French election:


President Biden and Donald Trump will take the stage in the first debate of the 2024 election. The debate will begin at 9pm ET (9am Hong Kong time, 11am Sydney time). This may be the most important moment of the campaign. Follow Our real-time updates.

Biden will seek to prioritize abortion access and the future of democracy. His team hopes to steer voters toward viewing 2024 not as a vote on Biden’s leadership but as a second Trump term that will be more aggressive and vengeful than the first.

Trump is keen to attack Biden’s record and age (Biden is 81, Trump is 78). Trump is expected to focus on immigration and inflation. Leading Biden That number rose three percentage points, according to the Times/Siena College poll.


Iran will hold a special election today to replace President Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed last month. Voters say No enthusiasm Any of the six candidates.

In the past, some Iranians have boycotted elections to express dissatisfaction with the government. Even those who say they will participate in this election do not believe their lives will be better.

“We are constantly going backwards and we are crying inside,” said a 53-year-old engineer.

arms: For the first time, some in Iran’s ruling elite no longer insist that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes; Talk openly about making a bomb.

As the planet warms, it was expected that atoll nations like the Maldives would disappear beneath rising waves. But my colleague Raymond Zhong reports that scientists are already starting to see something alarming: Some of these islands are expanding.

Today is my last day writing the Asia Pacific Morning Briefing. On Monday, I’ll join our international desk to cover breaking news from London.

It has been a great honor and a pleasant challenge to write this newsletter. I have learned a lot from my colleagues and from you, my loyal readers. I am very grateful for your insightful and inspiring emails. Thank you for giving us a few minutes of your time and for participating in our work. I know you will be in good hands.

If you have suggestions, story ideas or even London recommendations, please contact me. My email address is amelia.nierenberg@nytimes.com.

Thank you for your trust and reading.


Daniel E. Slotnick Contributed reporting.

That’s all for today. Have a great weekend and have a great rest of the year! — Amelia

You can contact our team via the following methods: briefing@nytimes.com.

Source link

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here